President Rodrigo Duterte.
CNN
file photo
here
are those who say that the Philippines never misses an opportunity, to
miss an opportunity. Sadly, there may be some truth to that statement.
After WWII, the country appeared poised to take the lead in Southeast
Asia. Back then, it seemed to have everything going for it. It was more
advanced, and richer than most of its Southeast Asian neighbors.
Unfortunately, it passed up one opportunity after another, so that today
it lags behind many of its neighbors.
And
one very big opportunity it recently let slip by was the 2016 decision
by the Arbitral Tribunal in the Hague that gave the Philippines a
unanimous win versus China. Make no mistake; this was a bold and gutsy
move by the United Nations' sanctioned court. It stood up to rich and
powerful China and told them in no uncertain terms that what they were
doing was illegal. The ruling leveled the playing field for small or
weak countries that lacked the wherewithal to stop the aggression of a
powerful neighbor.
At
the dawn of this new millennium, the Philippines should have led by
example. It should have stood its ground, built a global consensus, and
demand that China accept the international court’s ruling. It would have
been a victory for the rule of law, and would have brought mankind a
step closer to the UN ideal of settling differences through peaceful
means, rather than by force.
After
WW II, the community of nations formed the UN, and created affiliated
international institutions so that disagreements between countries can
be settled peacefully instead of by war. UN-member countries then signed
on to various international treaties and conventions promising to abide
by global rules. This was by no means a new concept. Rather they were
the logical result of centuries of effort at instilling peace and order
between nations since the Treaty of Westphalia in 1648.
Both
China and the Philippines, like most other countries, are signatories to
the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). As
signatories, both are bound by all the rules and provisions of UNCLOS.
China however, claims historical ownership of most of the South China
Sea as delineated by its nine-dash line. It has thus occupied reefs and
shoals that should otherwise—by international law—be part of Philippine
territory.
Under
former President Benigno Aquino III, The Philippines took China to the
International Court of Arbitration in the Hague to challenge China’s
claim. As stated earlier, the court’s unanimous decision on July, 2016, threw out China’s
historical claim and sided with the Philippines.
Unfortunately, Rodrigo Duterte the newly elected Philippine president
chose instead to appease China instead of demanding that it adhere to
the arbitral court’s ruling. Duterte reason was that the Philippines
could not
stand up to China militarily.
What
Duterte fails to realize is that standing up to China does not mean
getting into a shooting war with it. The UN, UNCLOS, the Arbitral
Tribunal, and the various global agencies that currently exist are there
precisely so that countries should not have to resort to hostilities to
settle differences.
If
the Philippines had stood its ground, it would likely have been
supported by countries around the world. Unfortunately, Duterte took his
country in the wrong direction. So much so that China today continues to
flex its military might and limits the access of Filipino fishermen to
resources that the UN says actually belong to the Philippines.
Duterte may eventually change his stand and do what’s right. The
Philippines is not as weak or helpless as he thinks it is. Duterte
should also remember that history is replete with small countries that
have stood up to larger stronger ones and prevailed. Take North
Vietnam’s conflict with the United States. It prevailed. Vietnam’s total
population (both north and south) in the Sixties was less than 40
million. Compare that to the Philippines’ current population of over 100
million. The UK, France, Italy, Canada, and Australia all have
populations between 66 million (UK), and 24 million (Australia). In
numbers alone, Filipinos have much better odds than the North Vietnamese
had when they confronted the Americans and prevailed.
Another point to consider is that unlike North Vietnam then, the
Philippines has the United Nations on its side. As far as the world is
concerned the Philippines is right and China is wrong. The UN tribunal
said as much with its unanimous decision. UN member countries want
this matter resolved peacefully and will likely be willing to impose
sanctions on China if it uses force. No country should be allowed to bully or intimidate
a weaker neighbor into submission.
In
the long term, the Philippines will need to build and strengthen alliances
with Japan, Vietnam, and other South China Sea claimants who disagree
with China. Then it should expand that group to include as many countries
as possible.
Duterte must further show resolve by strengthening his armed forces.
South Korea and Singapore currently have a draft, and so should the
Philippines—we pointed this out in previous editorials. Young men and women, between the ages of 18 and 21 should
be required to serve in the military for a specified period of time. Not
only will a draft instill much needed discipline among Filipinos, it
will also bring Filipinos from all walks of life together, forming a
more cohesive society. Duterte will solve his current problem with ”tambays,” while beefing up his military.
When China sees the Philippines' resolve and the alliance of
countries allied with it. It may decide that Scarborough Shoal and the
other Philippine-owned islands and reefs are simply not worth the cost,
and abandon its claims to them. Published 6/28/2018 |